CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores, playoff · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Flamengo — Estudiantes
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Flamengo are clear favourites: 75% against 8% for the opponent, draw 17%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Flamengo — Estudiantes What is xG? | 2.3–0.6 | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 92% | |
| Estudiantes not to lose | 25% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Flamengo
- Flamengo goals
- Estudiantes goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Fluminense1:0
- 09.10away · Santos2:2
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 13.09Corinthians2:1
- 10.10away · Central Córdoba de Santiago2:2
- 06.10Gimnasia Mendoza3:0
- 02.10away · Club Atlético Platense0:1
- 22.09away · Lanús1:2
- 17.09away · Corinthians1:0
Head to head
- 21.05.2026Flamengo — Estudiantes1:0
- 30.04.2026Estudiantes — Flamengo1:1
- 26.09.2025Estudiantes — Flamengo1:0
- 19.09.2025Flamengo — Estudiantes2:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →