Brazilian Serie A, round 34 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Flamengo — Grêmio
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Flamengo are clear favourites: 83% against 4% for the opponent, draw 12%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
- Flamengo are 364 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Flamengo — No. 1, 64 pts; Grêmio — No. 18, 31 pts. A gap of 33 pts.
- Flamengo: unbeaten in 5; Grêmio: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Flamengo 3 wins, Grêmio 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Flamengo — Grêmio What is xG? | 2.5–0.6 | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 96% | |
| Grêmio not to lose | 17% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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Form
- 16.10away · Estudiantes0:0
- 11.10Fluminense1:0
- 09.10away · Santos2:2
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 11.10Internacional1:1
- 08.10away · Remo1:1
- 20.09Palmeiras0:0
- 17.09away · Botafogo2:3
- 12.09Vasco da Gama1:2
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Grêmio — Flamengo0:1
- 31.08.2025Flamengo — Grêmio1:1
- 13.04.2025Grêmio — Flamengo0:2
- 23.09.2024Grêmio — Flamengo3:2
- 14.06.2024Flamengo — Grêmio2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- Athletico ParanaenseVasco da Gamapreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- BotafogoAtlético-MGpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- São PauloCorinthianspreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 83% will not happen in roughly 17 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →