EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), round 4 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
Fleetwood Town — Arsenal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Arsenal are clear favourites: 96% against 1% for the opponent, draw 3%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 87%, both teams to score — 34%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 2.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fleetwood Town — Arsenal What is xG? | 0.4–4.6 | |
| Fleetwood Town not to lose | 4% | |
| Arsenal not to lose | 99% | |
| No draw | 97% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 34% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 66% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 87% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 13% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fleetwood Town
- Fleetwood Town goals
- Arsenal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 16.09Sheffield United1:0
- 25.08Shrewsbury Town4:0
- 08.08Chesterfield1:0
- 09.01away · Port Vale0:1
- 06.12Luton Town2:2
- 13.10Lille3:0
- 10.10Leeds United2:1
- 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
- 12.09away · Sunderland2:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
EFL Cup on the same day
- Bradford CityPeterborough Unitedpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 96% will not happen in roughly 4 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →