DFB-Pokal, round 2 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Freiburg — Wolfsburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Freiburg are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Freiburg are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Freiburg — Wolfsburg What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 83% | |
| Wolfsburg not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Freiburg
- Freiburg goals
- Wolfsburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Schalke 042:1
- 19.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- 12.09Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- 05.09away · Paderborn1:0
- 30.08Werder Bremen4:1
- 10.10away · 1. FC Nürnberg4:4
- 18.09Darmstadt5:1
- 12.09away · St. Pauli0:1
- 05.09Energie Cottbus4:4
- 29.08away · Karlsruher SC5:2
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Freiburg — Wolfsburg1:1
- 20.12.2025Wolfsburg — Freiburg3:4
- 26.04.2025Wolfsburg — Freiburg0:1
- 13.12.2024Freiburg — Wolfsburg3:2
- 27.04.2024Freiburg — Wolfsburg1:2
DFB-Pokal on the same day
- SSV JeddelohHertha BSCpreliminary916762The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.3
- PaderbornVfB Stuttgartpreliminary1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Dynamo DresdenSchalke 04preliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- Bayer Leverkusen1. FC Nürnbergpreliminary781571The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.4
- Bayern MünchenMagdeburgpreliminary97211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:05.2
- Hannover 96Kaiserslauternpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Holstein KielHoffenheimpreliminary1722602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →