English Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Fulham — Newcastle United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Evenly matched: Fulham 38%, Newcastle United 33%, draw 29%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Fulham are 85 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Fulham — No. 15, 9 pts; Newcastle United — No. 13, 11 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Fulham 3 wins, Newcastle United 2.
- Days of rest before the match: Fulham 7, Newcastle United 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fulham — Newcastle United What is xG? | 1.5–1.4 | |
| Fulham not to lose | 67% | |
| Newcastle United not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fulham
- Fulham goals
- Newcastle United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Fulham | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.65 | 1.27 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.29 | 1.52 |
| Shots | 14.1 | 15.3 |
| On target | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Corners | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 59 | 54 |
Form
- 31.10away · Aston Villa1:1
- 28.10Crystal Palace0:1
- 24.10away · Coventry City1:0
- 17.10Hull City1:0
- 10.10away · Ipswich Town1:2
- 02.11Everton0:1
- 29.10away · Everton1:3
- 25.10away · Crystal Palace2:0
- 17.10Aston Villa0:1
- 12.10away · Coventry City1:4
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Fulham — Newcastle United2:0
- 17.12.2025Newcastle United — Fulham2:1
- 25.10.2025Newcastle United — Fulham2:1
- 01.02.2025Newcastle United — Fulham1:2
- 21.09.2024Fulham — Newcastle United3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Leeds United | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 9 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
Premier League on the same day
- 343135XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
- 841241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
- 1725582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →