English Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Leeds United — Tottenham Hotspur
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Evenly matched: Leeds United 34%, Tottenham Hotspur 35%, draw 31%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Leeds United are 114 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Leeds United — No. 12, 11 pts; Tottenham Hotspur — No. 9, 12 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Leeds United: winless in 5; Tottenham Hotspur: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Leeds United 0 wins, Tottenham Hotspur 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leeds United — Tottenham Hotspur What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Leeds United not to lose | 65% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Total over 2.5” at 55%, the market at 48%.
- Leeds United to winModel34%odds 2.94Market36%odds 2.76
- DrawModel31%odds 3.23Market29%odds 3.48
- Tottenham Hotspur to winModel35%odds 2.86Market35%odds 2.85
- Total over 2.5Model55%odds 1.82Market48%odds 2.08
- Total under 2.5Model45%odds 2.22Market52%odds 1.92
- Both teams to score: yesModel61%odds 1.64Market55%odds 1.82
- Both teams to score: noModel39%odds 2.56Market45%odds 2.21
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Leeds United
- Leeds United goals
- Tottenham Hotspur goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Leeds United | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.53 | 1.45 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.46 | 0.83 |
| Shots | 12.4 | 17.6 |
| On target | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 8.8 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 63 |
Form
- 31.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:2
- 25.10away · Sunderland0:0
- 18.10Manchester United1:1
- 10.10away · Arsenal1:2
- 20.09Crystal Palace0:0
- 31.10Crystal Palace2:0
- 24.10away · Chelsea2:0
- 19.10Coventry City3:1
- 10.10away · Manchester United1:1
- 19.09Aston Villa2:3
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Tottenham Hotspur — Leeds United1:1
- 04.10.2025Leeds United — Tottenham Hotspur1:2
- 28.05.2023Leeds United — Tottenham Hotspur1:4
- 12.11.2022Tottenham Hotspur — Leeds United4:3
- 26.02.2022Leeds United — Tottenham Hotspur0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds United | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
Premier League on the same day
- 841241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
- 3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 1725582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →