English Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Nottingham Forest — Manchester City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites: 58% against 17% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Manchester City are 165 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Nottingham Forest — No. 19, 6 pts; Manchester City — No. 2, 21 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Nottingham Forest: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Nottingham Forest 1 win, Manchester City 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nottingham Forest — Manchester City What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Nottingham Forest not to lose | 42% | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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- Handicap Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest goals
- Manchester City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.6 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.50 | 2.04 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.12 | 1.34 |
| Shots | 16.0 | 16.3 |
| On target | 3.4 | 5.6 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 60 |
Form
- 31.10away · Brentford0:2
- 23.10away · Ipswich Town1:1
- 18.10Arsenal0:1
- 11.10away · Crystal Palace1:3
- 19.09Coventry City0:1
- 31.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:1
- 28.10Brighton & Hove Albion2:2
- 24.10away · Aston Villa1:2
- 20.10AEK Athens5:1
- 17.10Ipswich Town3:2
Head to head
- 04.03.2026Manchester City — Nottingham Forest2:2
- 27.12.2025Nottingham Forest — Manchester City1:2
- 27.04.2025Nottingham Forest — Manchester City0:2
- 08.03.2025Nottingham Forest — Manchester City1:0
- 04.12.2024Manchester City — Nottingham Forest3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | +9 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | +10 | 21 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 18, Relegation | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | -12 | 7 |
| 19, Relegation | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
| 20, Relegation | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | -10 | 5 |
Premier League on the same day
- 343135XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
- 841241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
- 3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →