Turkish Super Lig, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 16:00 (UTC+3)

Galatasaray — Samsunspor

Model prediction for 21 November

Galatasaray85%

Draw11%

Samsunspor4%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Galatasaray are clear favourites: 85% against 4% for the opponent, draw 11%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.

Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Galatasaray are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
Galatasaray are 403 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Galatasaray — No. 1, 25 pts; Samsunspor — No. 17, 4 pts. A gap of 21 pts.
Galatasaray: 5 wins in a row; Samsunspor: 5 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Galatasaray 4 wins, Samsunspor 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Galatasaray — Samsunspor What is xG?		2.8–0.7
Galatasaray not to lose		96%
Samsunspor not to lose		15%
No draw		89%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		65%
Total under 2.5		35%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Galatasaray
Galatasaray goals
Samsunspor goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Galatasaray	Samsunspor
Goals scored per match	1.9	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.5	2.6
xG per match	1.67	1.14
Opponents’ xG	1.45	1.95
Shots	16.1	13.3
On target	5.7	3.3
Corners	7.2	4.2
Cards	2.1	1.4
Possession, %	55	54

Averages per match: Galatasaray — the last 10, Samsunspor — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Galatasaray

03.11VfB Stuttgart2:0
30.10away · Konyaspor4:0
26.10Fenerbahçe2:1
21.10away · Lille4:2
17.10away · Gençlerbirliği1:0

Samsunspor

01.11away · Başakşehir2:5
24.10Amed Sportif1:2
18.10away · Kasımpaşa1:4
10.10Trabzonspor0:3
20.09away · Erzurumspor FK0:1

Head to head

02.05.2026Samsunspor — Galatasaray4:1
05.12.2025Galatasaray — Samsunspor3:2
11.04.2025Samsunspor — Galatasaray0:2
10.11.2024Galatasaray — Samsunspor3:2
02.02.2024Samsunspor — Galatasaray0:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Champions League	Galatasaray	10	8	1	1	23–12	+11	25
2, Champions League qualifying	Amed Sportif	10	7	2	1	25–11	+14	23
16, Relegation	Gaziantep FK	10	2	2	6	9–17	-8	8
17, Relegation	Samsunspor	10	1	1	8	10–26	-16	4
18, Relegation	Eyüpspor	10	1	0	9	3–28	-25	3

Season 2026/27

Full table

Super Lig on the same day

13:30
GençlerbirliğiGaziantep FKpreliminary
442927
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
16:00
Amed SportifRizesporpreliminary
592319
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
19:00
KocaelisporFenerbahçepreliminary
162757
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 85% will not happen in roughly 15 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →