Turkish Super Lig, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Gençlerbirliği — Gaziantep FK
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Gençlerbirliği are slightly stronger: 44% against 27%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Gençlerbirliği are 134 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Gençlerbirliği — No. 14, 11 pts; Gaziantep FK — No. 16, 8 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Gençlerbirliği 2 wins, Gaziantep FK 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği — Gaziantep FK What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Gençlerbirliği not to lose | 73% | |
| Gaziantep FK not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Gençlerbirliği | Gaziantep FK |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.95 | 1.56 |
| Shots | 12.1 | 13.6 |
| On target | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 43 | 50 |
Form
- 02.11Alanyaspor5:0
- 29.10Karaköprü Belediyespor5:0
- 25.10away · Konyaspor0:2
- 17.10Galatasaray0:1
- 10.10Amed Sportif2:2
- 01.11away · Trabzonspor0:2
- 27.10away · Etimesgut Spor Kulubu4:0
- 24.10Erzurumspor FK1:3
- 18.10away · Başakşehir1:2
- 11.10Çorum FK0:3
Head to head
- 01.02.2026Gençlerbirliği — Gaziantep FK2:1
- 23.08.2025Gaziantep FK — Gençlerbirliği2:1
- 02.03.2021Gaziantep FK — Gençlerbirliği2:1
- 31.10.2020Gençlerbirliği — Gaziantep FK1:1
- 24.01.2020Gençlerbirliği — Gaziantep FK1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rizespor | 10 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 10 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 16, Relegation | Gaziantep FK | 10 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
| 17, Relegation | Samsunspor | 10 | 1 | -16 | 4 |
Super Lig on the same day
- Amed SportifRizesporpreliminary5923191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- GalatasaraySamsunsporpreliminary851141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- KocaelisporFenerbahçepreliminary1627572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →