Turkish Super Lig, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 19:00 (UTC+3)

Kocaelispor — Fenerbahçe

Model prediction for 21 November

Kocaelispor16%

Draw27%

Fenerbahçe57%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Fenerbahçe are clear favourites: 57% against 16% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings Fenerbahçe are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Fenerbahçe are 111 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Kocaelispor — No. 8, 16 pts; Fenerbahçe — No. 6, 16 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Kocaelispor 0 wins, Fenerbahçe 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kocaelispor — Fenerbahçe What is xG?		0.9–1.7
Kocaelispor not to lose		43%
Fenerbahçe not to lose		84%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor goals
Fenerbahçe goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Kocaelispor	Fenerbahçe
Goals scored per match	1.1	2.0
Goals conceded per match	0.9	1.5
xG per match	1.14	1.83
Opponents’ xG	1.33	1.40
Shots	12.9	14.8
On target	4.3	5.3
Corners	4.3	4.5
Cards	2.0	2.5
Possession, %	49	53

Averages per match: Kocaelispor — the last 10, Fenerbahçe — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kocaelispor

31.10Rizespor0:0
27.10Mazıdağı Fosfat Spor3:0
23.10away · Alanyaspor2:1
18.10Göztepe1:2
11.10away · Beşiktaş1:2

Fenerbahçe

31.10Göztepe1:2
26.10away · Galatasaray1:2
20.10Slavia Prague2:2
17.10Alanyaspor3:0
14.10away · Aston Villa0:6

Head to head

02.02.2026Kocaelispor — Fenerbahçe0:2
23.08.2025Fenerbahçe — Kocaelispor3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5	Kasımpaşa	10	4	5	1	15–11	+4	17
6	Fenerbahçe	10	5	1	4	24–10	+14	16
7	Çorum FK	10	5	1	4	21–16	+5	16
8	Kocaelispor	10	5	1	4	11–9	+2	16
9	Göztepe	10	4	3	3	21–17	+4	15

Season 2026/27

Full table

Super Lig on the same day

13:30
GençlerbirliğiGaziantep FKpreliminary
442927
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
16:00
Amed SportifRizesporpreliminary
592319
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
16:00
GalatasaraySamsunsporpreliminary
85114
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →