J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Gamba Osaka — Cerezo Osaka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Gamba Osaka are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Gamba Osaka are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Gamba Osaka are 59 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Gamba Osaka — No. 16, 12 pts; Cerezo Osaka — No. 12, 14 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Gamba Osaka: unbeaten in 4; Cerezo Osaka: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Gamba Osaka 1 win, Cerezo Osaka 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gamba Osaka — Cerezo Osaka What is xG? | 1.7–1.3 | |
| Gamba Osaka not to lose | 75% | |
| Cerezo Osaka not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Gamba Osaka | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.12 | 1.19 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.42 | 1.73 |
| Shots | 13.6 | 14.5 |
| On target | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Corners | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 52 |
Form
- 01.11away · Machida Zelvia0:0
- 24.10Kyoto Sanga FC2:2
- 21.10away · Avispa Fukuoka2:1
- 17.10away · Shimizu S-Pulse2:2
- 09.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 31.10away · Kashima Antlers1:4
- 25.10JEF United Chiba2:2
- 21.10away · Nagoya Grampus1:1
- 17.10Kawasaki Frontale2:4
- 10.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Gamba Osaka — Cerezo Osaka0:1
- 07.02.2026Cerezo Osaka — Gamba Osaka0:0
- 05.07.2025Cerezo Osaka — Gamba Osaka0:1
- 14.02.2025Gamba Osaka — Cerezo Osaka2:5
- 02.10.2024Cerezo Osaka — Gamba Osaka1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 13 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 3 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 13 | 4 | -12 | 14 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 13 | 2 | -11 | 11 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3031392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →