J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Machida Zelvia — Sanfrecce Hiroshima
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sanfrecce Hiroshima are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Machida Zelvia — No. 3, 28 pts; Sanfrecce Hiroshima — No. 2, 29 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Machida Zelvia: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Machida Zelvia 0 wins, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Machida Zelvia — Sanfrecce Hiroshima What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Machida Zelvia not to lose | 61% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia goals
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Machida Zelvia | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.82 | 2.17 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.95 | 0.76 |
| Shots | 14.0 | 19.3 |
| On target | 5.6 | 6.6 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 7.9 |
| Cards | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 66 |
Form
- 01.11Gamba Osaka0:0
- 24.10away · Vissel Kobe0:0
- 21.10away · Shimizu S-Pulse5:0
- 18.10Avispa Fukuoka3:0
- 10.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC1:0
- 31.10away · Mito Hollyhock3:0
- 24.10Shimizu S-Pulse4:0
- 21.10away · V-Varen Nagasaki0:4
- 17.10Kyoto Sanga FC3:0
- 11.10away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
Head to head
- 04.10.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Machida Zelvia2:1
- 16.02.2025Machida Zelvia — Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:2
- 28.09.2024Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Machida Zelvia2:0
- 03.04.2024Machida Zelvia — Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 13 | 9 | +23 | 30 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | +22 | 29 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | +20 | 28 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 9 | +10 | 28 |
J1 League on the same day
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4827251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- 4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →