J1 League (Japan), round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
JEF United Chiba — Mito Hollyhock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
JEF United Chiba are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- JEF United Chiba are 109 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: JEF United Chiba — No. 18, 10 pts; Mito Hollyhock — No. 19, 9 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Mito Hollyhock: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: JEF United Chiba 0 wins, Mito Hollyhock 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: JEF United Chiba — Mito Hollyhock What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| JEF United Chiba not to lose | 77% | |
| Mito Hollyhock not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap JEF United Chiba
- JEF United Chiba goals
- Mito Hollyhock goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | JEF United Chiba | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.29 | 0.62 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.12 | 1.67 |
| Shots | 12.6 | 7.6 |
| On target | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| Cards | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 43 |
Form
- 01.11Avispa Fukuoka3:0
- 25.10away · Cerezo Osaka2:2
- 21.10away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
- 17.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0
- 11.10V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 31.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- 25.10away · FC Tokyo0:6
- 21.10away · Fagiano Okayama FC0:2
- 17.10Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 11.10Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
Head to head
- 11.04.2026JEF United Chiba — Mito Hollyhock1:1
- 22.02.2026Mito Hollyhock — JEF United Chiba1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 13 | 2 | -11 | 11 |
| 18, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 13 | 2 | -9 | 10 |
| 19, Relegation | Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | -13 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Avispa Fukuoka | 13 | 2 | -11 | 7 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3031392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4827251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →