Belgian Pro League, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 20:15 (UTC+3)

Genk — RAAL La Louvière

Model prediction for 21 November

Genk71%

Draw18%

RAAL La Louvière10%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Genk are clear favourites: 71% against 10% for the opponent, draw 18%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Genk are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Genk are 252 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Genk — No. 6, 15 pts; RAAL La Louvière — No. 16, 7 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Genk 0 wins, RAAL La Louvière 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Genk — RAAL La Louvière What is xG?		2.1–0.8
Genk not to lose		90%
RAAL La Louvière not to lose		29%
No draw		82%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Genk
Genk goals
RAAL La Louvière goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Genk	RAAL La Louvière
Goals scored per match	1.8	1.3
Goals conceded per match	1.4	2.3
xG per match	2.05	1.25
Opponents’ xG	1.07	2.08
Shots	15.8	11.8
On target	5.2	4.1
Corners	5.1	3.6
Cards	2.3	2.3
Possession, %	55	39

Averages per match: Genk — the last 10, RAAL La Louvière — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Genk

31.10away · KV Mechelen0:1
25.10Standard Liège2:1
17.10away · Virton2:0
10.10Kortrijk3:0
20.09away · Club Brugge0:3

RAAL La Louvière

01.11away · Sporting Charleroi2:5
24.10Zulte Waregem3:0
17.10FC Liège4:0
10.10Club Brugge1:4
19.09away · OH Leuven0:2

Head to head

22.03.2026RAAL La Louvière — Genk5:5
26.10.2025Genk — RAAL La Louvière1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13–11	+2	19
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	18–14	+4	15
7	Lommel	10	4	3	3	13–11	+2	15
15	St.Truiden	10	2	2	6	18–21	-3	8
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	13–23	-10	7
17, Relegation	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	13–22	-9	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Belgian Pro League on the same day

18:00
Sporting CharleroiSt.Truidenpreliminary
522722
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
22:45
KV MechelenClub Bruggepreliminary
132166
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
22:45
Zulte WaregemRoyal Antwerppreliminary
422830
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →