Belgian Pro League, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
KV Mechelen — Club Brugge
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Club Brugge are clear favourites: 66% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Club Brugge are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
- Club Brugge are 259 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: KV Mechelen — No. 14, 9 pts; Club Brugge — No. 1, 27 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- KV Mechelen: 3 wins in a row; Club Brugge: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: KV Mechelen 1 win, Club Brugge 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: KV Mechelen — Club Brugge What is xG? | 1.0–2.2 | |
| KV Mechelen not to lose | 34% | |
| Club Brugge not to lose | 87% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen goals
- Club Brugge goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | KV Mechelen | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.08 | 2.45 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.58 | 2.01 |
| Shots | 10.6 | 16.1 |
| On target | 2.9 | 6.2 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 6.1 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 59 |
Form
- 30.10away · Zulte Waregem4:2
- 25.10St.Truiden3:2
- 21.10Lens3:0
- 17.10KSC Lokeren1:0
- 13.10away · Inter4:3
Head to head
- 21.05.2026KV Mechelen — Club Brugge2:2
- 22.04.2026Club Brugge — KV Mechelen6:1
- 22.03.2026Club Brugge — KV Mechelen4:1
- 01.08.2025KV Mechelen — Club Brugge2:1
- 07.12.2024KV Mechelen — Club Brugge1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Club Brugge | 10 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Union St.Gilloise | 10 | 8 | +22 | 26 |
| 13 | OH Leuven | 10 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 9 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | St.Truiden | 10 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- Sporting CharleroiSt.Truidenpreliminary5227221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- GenkRAAL La Louvièrepreliminary7118101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- Zulte WaregemRoyal Antwerppreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →