Belgian Pro League, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Sporting Charleroi — St.Truiden

Model prediction for 21 November

Sporting Charleroi52%

Draw27%

St.Truiden22%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Sporting Charleroi are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings Sporting Charleroi are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Sporting Charleroi are 186 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Sporting Charleroi — No. 4, 24 pts; St.Truiden — No. 15, 8 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Sporting Charleroi 3 wins, St.Truiden 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sporting Charleroi — St.Truiden What is xG?		1.8–1.2
Sporting Charleroi not to lose		78%
St.Truiden not to lose		48%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Sporting Charleroi
Sporting Charleroi goals
St.Truiden goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Sporting Charleroi	St.Truiden
Goals scored per match	2.1	1.7
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.7
xG per match	1.98	2.06
Opponents’ xG	1.15	1.53
Shots	17.3	16.5
On target	5.8	4.8
Corners	5.4	6.4
Cards	1.5	1.8
Possession, %	57	57

Averages per match: Sporting Charleroi — the last 10, St.Truiden — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Sporting Charleroi

01.11RAAL La Louvière5:2
24.10away · Royal Antwerp0:3
17.10away · Renaissance Mons1:0
11.10away · Standard Liège1:0
19.09Cercle Brugge3:2

St.Truiden

01.11OH Leuven1:2
25.10away · Club Brugge2:3
22.10away · FC Midtjylland1:0
18.10Lommel4:1
15.10Iberia 19992:0

Head to head

31.01.2026St.Truiden — Sporting Charleroi0:2
03.08.2025Sporting Charleroi — St.Truiden1:1
21.12.2024Sporting Charleroi — St.Truiden2:1
03.08.2024St.Truiden — Sporting Charleroi1:4
23.12.2023St.Truiden — Sporting Charleroi1:0

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Europa League or Conference League	Gent	10	8	1	1	19–6	+13	25
4, Europa League or Conference League	Sporting Charleroi	10	8	0	2	21–12	+9	24
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13–11	+2	19
14	KV Mechelen	9	2	3	4	10–17	-7	9
15	St.Truiden	10	2	2	6	18–21	-3	8
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	13–23	-10	7

Season 2026/27

Full table

Belgian Pro League on the same day

20:15
GenkRAAL La Louvièrepreliminary
711810
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
22:45
KV MechelenClub Bruggepreliminary
132166
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
22:45
Zulte WaregemRoyal Antwerppreliminary
422830
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →