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K League 1 (South Korea), round 34 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Gwangju World Cup Stadium

Gwangju FC — Gimcheon Sangmu

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Gwangju FC38%
Draw30%
Gimcheon Sangmu32%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Gwangju FC to win (38%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 38% fails in about 62 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Gwangju FC 38%, Gimcheon Sangmu 32%, draw 30%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Gimcheon Sangmu are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Gwangju FC higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Gwangju FC 1 win, Gimcheon Sangmu 0, 4 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gwangju FC — Gimcheon Sangmu What is xG?1.5–1.3
Gwangju FC not to lose68%
Gimcheon Sangmu not to lose62%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Gwangju FC
  • Gwangju FC goals
  • Gimcheon Sangmu goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 30′Seong-Yun Kwon · Gwangju FC
  2. 64′In-Kyun Kim · Gimcheon Sangmu0:1
  3. 76′John Iredale · Gwangju FC1:1
Substitutions (9)
  1. 26′Young-Kyu Ahn ↔ Teun van Grunsven · Gwangju FC
  2. 37′Min-Seo Moon ↔ Seung-Un Ha · Gwangju FC
  3. 46′Min-Gi Lee ↔ João Pedro · Gwangju FC
  4. 46′Jae-Min Jeong ↔ Min-Geu Kang · Gimcheon Sangmu
  5. 61′In-Kyun Kim ↔ Ju-Hyeok Kang · Gimcheon Sangmu
  6. 82′Kyung-Ho Roh ↔ Sang-Heon Lee · Gimcheon Sangmu
  7. 88′Min-Seo Park ↔ Jin-Seong Park · Gimcheon Sangmu
  8. 88′Jae-Seok Yoon ↔ Yun-Sang Hong · Gimcheon Sangmu
  9. 89′Se-Jong Joo ↔ Kyoung-Rok Choi · Gwangju FC

Match statistics

Gwangju FCGimcheon Sangmu
  • 44Possession, %56
  • 8Shots14
  • 1On target7
  • 2Corners4
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Gwangju FC

  1. GKDong-Hwa Kim
  2. DFJoão Pedro46′
  3. DFSang-Ki Min
  4. DFSeung-Un Ha37′
  5. DFSeong-Yun Kwon
  6. DFTeun van Grunsven26′
  7. MFKyoung-Rok Choi89′
  8. MFJe-Ho Yu
  9. MFChang-Moo Sin
  10. FWAdriel Ba Loua
  11. FWJohn Iredale
Came on (4)
  1. DFMin-Gi Lee44′
  2. DFYoung-Kyu Ahn64′
  3. MFMin-Seo Moon53′
  4. MFSe-Jong Joo1′

Gimcheon Sangmu

  1. GKJoon-Soo Ahn
  2. DFMin-Kyu Kim
  3. DFJun-Soo Byeon
  4. DFJin-Seong Park88′
  5. MFTae-Joon Park
  6. MFYun-Sang Hong88′
  7. MFKang-Hyeon Lee
  8. MFKyeong-Hyeon Min
  9. MFJu-Hyeok Kang61′
  10. FWSang-Heon Lee82′
  11. FWMin-Geu Kang46′
Came on (5)
  1. FWJae-Min Jeong44′
  2. DFMin-Seo Park2′
  3. FWJae-Seok Yoon2′
  4. MFIn-Kyun Kim29′
  5. MFKyung-Ho Roh8′

Form

Gwangju FC

  • 24.10away · Bucheon FC 19953:0
  • 18.10away · Daejeon Hana Citizen2:3
  • 11.10Ulsan HD FC4:3
  • 20.09away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:2
  • 13.09FC Anyang1:1

Gimcheon Sangmu

  • 24.10Daejeon Hana Citizen1:2
  • 18.10away · FC Seoul2:2
  • 10.10FC Anyang0:1
  • 19.09away · Bucheon FC 19952:0
  • 13.09Gangwon FC2:2

Head to head

  • 06.09.2026Gimcheon Sangmu — Gwangju FC2:2
  • 22.07.2026Gwangju FC — Gimcheon Sangmu1:1
  • 17.03.2026Gimcheon Sangmu — Gwangju FC1:1
  • 22.07.2025Gwangju FC — Gimcheon Sangmu1:1
  • 05.05.2025Gwangju FC — Gimcheon Sangmu1:0

Full record: 10 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
9, Relegation roundPohang Steelers3411101331–40-943
10, Relegation roundGimcheon Sangmu34520934–42-835
11, Relegation roundBucheon FC 1995347111633–49-1632
12, Relegation play-offGwangju FC343131831–70-3922

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

  • Jeju SKGwangju FC7 November · K League 1
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • Gimcheon SangmuFC Anyang7 November · K League 1
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5

K League 1 on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →