Norwegian Eliteserien, round 27 · Saturday, 21 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Hamarkameratene — Fredrikstad

Model prediction for 21 November

Hamarkameratene37%

Draw28%

Fredrikstad34%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Hamarkameratene 37%, Fredrikstad 34%, draw 28%.

The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Fredrikstad higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Hamarkameratene — No. 13, 27 pts; Fredrikstad — No. 11, 29 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Fredrikstad: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Hamarkameratene 0 wins, Fredrikstad 3, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hamarkameratene — Fredrikstad What is xG?		1.5–1.4
Hamarkameratene not to lose		66%
Fredrikstad not to lose		63%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Hamarkameratene
Hamarkameratene goals
Fredrikstad goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Hamarkameratene	Fredrikstad
Goals scored per match	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded per match	2.7	1.7
xG per match	1.13	1.32
Opponents’ xG	2.27	1.76
Shots	10.7	13.2
On target	2.9	4.4
Corners	4.3	4.5
Cards	1.6	1.5
Possession, %	44	51

Averages per match: Hamarkameratene — the last 10, Fredrikstad — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Hamarkameratene

01.11away · KFUM2:2
24.10Rosenborg0:3
17.10Bodø/Glimt0:2
11.10away · Start4:2
20.09away · Tromsø2:3

Fredrikstad

31.10Rosenborg0:3
25.10away · Molde1:5
17.10away · Viking2:3
11.10Tromsø1:1
20.09away · Vålerenga1:1

Head to head

16.05.2026Fredrikstad — Hamarkameratene2:1
05.10.2025Fredrikstad — Hamarkameratene1:1
20.07.2025Hamarkameratene — Fredrikstad1:1
23.11.2024Fredrikstad — Hamarkameratene1:0
21.07.2024Hamarkameratene — Fredrikstad0:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10	KFUM	25	8	7	10	32–41	-9	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29–44	-15	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26–34	-8	27
13	Hamarkameratene	25	7	6	12	35–53	-18	27
14, Relegation play-off	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43–57	-14	24

Season 2026

Full table

Eliteserien on the same day

16:00
TromsøVikingpreliminary
292644
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
20:00
VålerengaStartpreliminary
572320
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →