Norwegian Eliteserien, round 27 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Tromsø — Viking
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Viking are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 26%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Viking are 158 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Tromsø — No. 6, 40 pts; Viking — No. 1, 59 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
- Tromsø: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Tromsø 0 wins, Viking 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tromsø — Viking What is xG? | 1.4–1.7 | |
| Tromsø not to lose | 56% | |
| Viking not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tromsø
- Tromsø goals
- Viking goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Tromsø | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.44 | 1.83 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.55 | 1.73 |
| Shots | 12.0 | 14.4 |
| On target | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Corners | 4.0 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 43 |
Form
- 01.11away · Vålerenga0:4
- 25.10away · Viking1:3
- 18.10KFUM1:1
- 11.10away · Fredrikstad1:1
- 20.09Hamarkameratene3:2
- 30.10away · Bodø/Glimt2:3
- 25.10Tromsø3:1
- 21.10away · Aston Villa1:3
- 17.10Fredrikstad3:2
- 13.10Bayern München3:3
Head to head
- 25.10.2026Viking — Tromsø3:1
- 19.10.2025Tromsø — Viking1:3
- 27.04.2025Viking — Tromsø4:4
- 01.09.2024Tromsø — Viking2:2
- 05.05.2024Viking — Tromsø2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Viking | 25 | 19 | +38 | 59 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19 | +38 | 59 |
| 5 | Lillestrøm | 25 | 13 | +3 | 42 |
| 6 | Tromsø | 25 | 11 | +5 | 40 |
| 7 | Brann | 25 | 10 | +3 | 32 |
Eliteserien on the same day
- HamarkamerateneFredrikstadpreliminary3728341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- VålerengaStartpreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →