Norwegian Eliteserien, round 27 · Saturday, 21 November, 20:00 (UTC+3)

Vålerenga — Start

Model prediction for 21 November

Vålerenga57%

Draw23%

Start20%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Vålerenga are clear favourites: 57% against 20% for the opponent, draw 23%.

3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 68%.

Why

By the strength ratings Vålerenga are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Vålerenga are 214 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Vålerenga — No. 8, 32 pts; Start — No. 16, 19 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
Vålerenga: 3 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vålerenga — Start What is xG?		2.2–1.4
Vålerenga not to lose		80%
Start not to lose		43%
No draw		77%
Both teams to score: yes		68%
Both teams to score: no		32%
Total over 2.5		68%
Total under 2.5		32%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Vålerenga
Vålerenga goals
Start goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Vålerenga	Start
Goals scored per match	2.1	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.9	2.1
xG per match	1.94	1.71
Opponents’ xG	1.86	2.10
Shots	18.0	16.7
On target	6.0	3.8
Corners	6.3	5.8
Cards	1.9	1.3
Possession, %	51	45

Averages per match: Vålerenga — the last 10, Start — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Vålerenga

01.11Tromsø4:0
24.10away · Bodø/Glimt1:0
18.10Brann3:1
12.10away · KFUM1:2
20.09Fredrikstad1:1

Start

01.11Lillestrøm0:1
25.10Sandefjord1:0
18.10away · Molde1:6
11.10Hamarkameratene2:4
20.09away · Sandefjord0:3

Head to head

25.05.2026Start — Vålerenga2:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
7	Brann	25	10	2	13	45–42	+3	32
8	Vålerenga	25	9	5	11	43–46	-3	32
9	Sarpsborg 08	25	8	7	10	32–39	-7	31
15, Relegation	Kristiansund	25	6	5	14	29–51	-22	23
16, Relegation	Start	25	5	4	16	26–55	-29	19

Season 2026

Full table

Eliteserien on the same day

16:00
TromsøVikingpreliminary
292644
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
18:00
HamarkamerateneFredrikstadpreliminary
372834
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →