Austrian Bundesliga, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · PROfertil ARENA
Hartberg — Austria Lustenau
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4:3Came true
In short
Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Hartberg to win (51%), came true.
Hartberg are clear favourites: 51% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hartberg are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hartberg — Austria Lustenau What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Hartberg not to lose | 78% | |
| Austria Lustenau not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Handicap Hartberg
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Form
- 19.09Altach2:0
- 13.09away · Austria Wien1:2
- 28.08WSG Tirol0:4
- 22.08away · Sturm Graz1:1
- 15.08Wolfsberger AC2:1
Head to head
- 29.10.2023Austria Lustenau — Hartberg0:4
- 29.07.2023Hartberg — Austria Lustenau2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Championship round | Ried | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6, Championship round | Hartberg | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7, Relegation round | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | -10 | 9 |
| 8, Relegation round | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 9, Relegation round | WSG Tirol | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
Next matches
- Rapid WienHartberg16 October · Austrian Bundesliga6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Austria LustenauLASK17 October · Austrian Bundesliga1220682The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.7
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- 5127221The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5625201The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →