K League 1 (South Korea), round 36 · Saturday, 21 November, 10:30 (UTC+3)

Incheon United — Ulsan HD FC

Model prediction for 21 November

Incheon United38%

Draw31%

Ulsan HD FC32%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Incheon United 38%, Ulsan HD FC 32%, draw 31%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Incheon United are 113 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Incheon United — No. 5, 49 pts; Ulsan HD FC — No. 2, 54 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Incheon United: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Incheon United 1 win, Ulsan HD FC 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Incheon United — Ulsan HD FC What is xG?		1.4–1.2
Incheon United not to lose		68%
Ulsan HD FC not to lose		62%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Incheon United
Incheon United goals
Ulsan HD FC goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Incheon United	Ulsan HD FC
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.7
Goals conceded per match	0.8	1.4
xG per match	0.49	0.90
Opponents’ xG	0.88	1.02
Shots	10.0	10.7
On target	4.1	4.7
Corners	3.8	4.8
Cards	1.1	1.6
Possession, %	51	47

Averages per match: Incheon United — the last 10, Ulsan HD FC — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Incheon United

01.11away · FC Seoul1:0
24.10Jeju SK3:1
18.10away · Gangwon FC1:1
09.10Pohang Steelers3:0
27.09away · Gangwon FC0:0

Ulsan HD FC

01.11Gangwon FC2:1
24.10Pohang Steelers2:2
17.10Bucheon FC 19952:1
11.10away · Gwangju FC3:4
19.09away · FC Anyang1:2

Head to head

12.09.2026Ulsan HD FC — Incheon United2:1
21.07.2026Ulsan HD FC — Incheon United1:2
11.04.2026Incheon United — Ulsan HD FC1:2
22.09.2024Incheon United — Ulsan HD FC0:0
29.05.2024Incheon United — Ulsan HD FC1:1

Full record: 10 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	FC Seoul	34	20	7	7	61–30	+31	67
2, Championship round	Ulsan HD FC	34	16	6	12	54–48	+6	54
3, Championship round	Daejeon Hana Citizen	34	13	11	10	53–41	+12	50
4, Championship round	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC	34	12	13	9	43–33	+10	49
5, Championship round	Incheon United	34	13	10	11	44–35	+9	49
6, Championship round	Gangwon FC	34	11	15	8	41–32	+9	48

Season 2026

Full table

K League 1 on the same day

08:00
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FCFC Seoulpreliminary
343035
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
08:00
Pohang SteelersFC Anyangpreliminary
403129
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
10:30
Gangwon FCDaejeon Hana Citizenpreliminary
313138
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →