Argentine Liga Profesional · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Independiente — Boca Juniors
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Boca Juniors are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 31%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Boca Juniors are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente — Boca Juniors What is xG? | 0.9–1.2 | |
| Independiente not to lose | 59% | |
| Boca Juniors not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente
- Independiente goals
- Boca Juniors goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Talleres0:0
- 03.10Instituto1:4
- 19.09away · Unión2:1
- 14.09San Lorenzo1:1
- 06.09away · Central Córdoba de Santiago1:0
- 10.10away · Instituto2:2
- 03.10Unión3:0
- 27.09away · Racing Club3:2
- 20.09away · San Lorenzo2:0
- 16.09away · São Paulo1:1
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Boca Juniors — Independiente1:1
- 20.05.2025Boca Juniors — Independiente0:1
- 15.12.2024Boca Juniors — Independiente0:0
- 29.07.2023Independiente — Boca Juniors0:2
- 23.10.2022Boca Juniors — Independiente2:2
Liga Profesional on the same day
- San LorenzoNewell's Old Boyspreliminary4332251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- Rosario CentralHuracánpreliminary5826161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- AldosiviBelgranopreliminary2730432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →