Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 2 November, MSK
Independiente Medellín — Alianza FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 2 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Independiente Medellín are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente Medellín are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente Medellín — Alianza FC What is xG? | 1.9–0.8 | |
| Independiente Medellín not to lose | 86% | |
| Alianza FC not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente Medellín
- Independiente Medellín goals
- Alianza FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · América de Cali2:1
- 06.10Santa Fe0:1
- 30.09Millonarios2:2
- 27.09away · Junior FC0:2
- 23.09CD Jaguares2:1
- 10.10Águilas Doradas2:2
- 03.10away · Deportivo Cali1:3
- 28.09away · CD Jaguares2:1
- 20.09Santa Fe1:4
- 16.09away · Chicó FC2:1
Head to head
- 20.04.2026Alianza FC — Independiente Medellín0:1
- 13.07.2025Independiente Medellín — Alianza FC1:1
- 27.01.2025Alianza FC — Independiente Medellín1:1
- 11.10.2024Independiente Medellín — Alianza FC2:0
- 25.02.2024Alianza FC — Independiente Medellín2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
| 14 | Chicó FC | 12 | 3 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza FC | 13 | 3 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | -5 | 11 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- Deportivo CaliChicó FCpreliminary6423121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →