Kazakhstan Premier League, round 30 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Irtysh Pavlodar — Ordabasy Shymkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ordabasy Shymkent are clear favourites: 64% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ordabasy Shymkent are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Irtysh Pavlodar — Ordabasy Shymkent What is xG? | 0.7–1.8 | |
| Irtysh Pavlodar not to lose | 36% | |
| Ordabasy Shymkent not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar goals
- Ordabasy Shymkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk0:2
- 18.09away · FC Altai Oskemen2:1
- 13.09Okzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
- 05.09away · Zhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
- 30.08Aktobe2:1
- 11.10away · Kaisar Kyzylorda4:1
- 17.09away · Atyrau3:0
- 12.09FC Astana1:0
- 05.09away · Okzhetpes Kokshetau1:2
- 29.08FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk3:0
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Ordabasy Shymkent — Irtysh Pavlodar2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy Shymkent | 27 | 20 | +36 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | -14 | 24 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- Kairat AlmatyFC Altai Oskemenpreliminary821261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Kaspiy AktauFC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovskpreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Tobol KostanayAktobepreliminary4027321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- UlytauAtyraupreliminary4131281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- FC YelimayOkzhetpes Kokshetaupreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- ZhenisKaisar Kyzylordapreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- Zhetysu TaldykorganFC Astanapreliminary1322652The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →