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Botola Pro (Morocco), round 5 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Stade de Marrakech

KACM — Difaâ El Jadida

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
KACM45%
Draw30%
Difaâ El Jadida24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, KACM to win (45%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 45% fails in about 55 matches out of 100 on average.

KACM are clear favourites: 45% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.2).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • KACM are 127 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • KACM: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 2 meetings: KACM 0 wins, Difaâ El Jadida 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: KACM — Difaâ El Jadida What is xG?1.4–1.0
KACM not to lose76%
Difaâ El Jadida not to lose55%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes50%
Both teams to score: no50%
Total over 2.542%
Total under 2.558%

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  • All totals
  • Handicap KACM
  • KACM goals
  • Difaâ El Jadida goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 18′Boulkassoum Diarra · Difaâ El Jadida
  2. 19′Hamza Smaali · penalty · KACM1:0
  3. 21′Ayoub El Khafi · Difaâ El Jadida
  4. 41′Jawad Ghabra · KACM
  5. 47′Mouhcine Rabja · KACM
  6. 53′Oussama Mahrous · KACM
  7. 77′Anass Mostakim · Difaâ El Jadida
  8. 83′Ibra Lo · Difaâ El Jadida
  9. 88′Youssef Raiani · KACM
  10. 90′Mouad Mouchtanim · penalty · Difaâ El Jadida1:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 38′Anass Mostakim ↔ Abderrazak Ennakouss · Difaâ El Jadida
  2. 46′Abdelkarim Baadi ↔ Nabil Khali · KACM
  3. 46′Ismail El Alami ↔ Abdallah Haimoud · KACM
  4. 46′Yassine Lhjale ↔ Boulkassoum Diarra · Difaâ El Jadida
  5. 57′Achraf Idrissi ↔ Ayoub El Khafi · Difaâ El Jadida
  6. 57′Zakaria Oubraim ↔ Reda Ech-Chgraoui · Difaâ El Jadida
  7. 68′Oussama Haffari ↔ Ayoub Al-Maamouri · KACM
  8. 68′Youssef Raiani ↔ Jawad Ghabra · KACM
  9. 69′Abdellah Farah ↔ Youssef Michte · Difaâ El Jadida
  10. 82′Mahmoud El Kayssoumi ↔ Saleh Essallami · KACM

Match statistics

KACMDifaâ El Jadida
  • 35Possession, %65
  • 5Shots12
  • 4On target9
  • 5Corners7
  • 3Yellow cards4
  • 1Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

KACM

  1. GKAmine El Ouaad
  2. DFAbdellah Bouallali
  3. DFMouhcine Rabja
  4. DFHamza Smaali
  5. DFNabil Khali46′
  6. MFAbdallah Haimoud46′
  7. MFOussama Mahrous
  8. MFHamza Rafaa
  9. FWAyoub Al-Maamouri68′
  10. FWSaleh Essallami82′
  11. FWJawad Ghabra68′
Came on (5)
  1. MFMahmoud El Kayssoumi8′
  2. MFOussama Haffari22′
  3. DFIsmail El Alami44′
  4. MFYoussef Raiani22′
  5. DFAbdelkarim Baadi44′

Difaâ El Jadida

  1. GKAyoub Ait Wahmane
  2. DFBoulkassoum Diarra46′
  3. DFReda Ech-Chgraoui57′
  4. DFAnas Moulhami
  5. MFBrahim El Idrissi Bouzidi
  6. MFYoussef Michte69′
  7. MFMouad Mouchtanim
  8. MFMegue
  9. MFIbra Lo
  10. MFAyoub El Khafi57′
  11. FWAbderrazak Ennakouss38′
Came on (5)
  1. DFZakaria Oubraim33′
  2. FWAchraf Idrissi33′
  3. DFYassine Lhjale44′
  4. MFAnass Mostakim52′
  5. MFAbdellah Farah21′

Form

KACM

  • 18.10away · Widad Temara1:0
  • 10.10Ittihad Tanger2:1
  • 03.10away · CODM Meknès1:0
  • 27.09Hassania Agadir2:3
  • 05.07away · Hassania Agadir1:1

Difaâ El Jadida

  • 17.10MAT Tetouan4:1
  • 10.10away · US Amal Tiznit5:2
  • 03.10Wydad Casablanca0:2
  • 26.09CODM Meknès2:6
  • 05.07RS Berkane1:3

Head to head

  • 28.06.2026Difaâ El Jadida — KACM1:1
  • 22.02.2026KACM — Difaâ El Jadida0:0

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, CAF Champions LeagueKACM64118–5+313
2, CAF Champions LeagueCODM Meknès63219–4+511
7Hassania Agadir622212–10+28
8Difaâ El Jadida622213–1308
9MAS Fès62225–508

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Difaâ El JadidaUnion Touarga Sport30 October · Botola Pro
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
  • US Amal TiznitKACM31 October · Botola Pro
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.5

Botola Pro on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →