Turkish Super Lig, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, 16:00 (UTC+3)

Kasımpaşa — Alanyaspor

Model prediction for 22 November

Kasımpaşa51%

Draw28%

Alanyaspor21%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kasımpaşa are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings Kasımpaşa are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Kasımpaşa are 153 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Kasımpaşa — No. 5, 17 pts; Alanyaspor — No. 12, 12 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Kasımpaşa: unbeaten in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Kasımpaşa 5 wins, Alanyaspor 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kasımpaşa — Alanyaspor What is xG?		1.5–0.9
Kasımpaşa not to lose		79%
Alanyaspor not to lose		49%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa goals
Alanyaspor goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Kasımpaşa	Alanyaspor
Goals scored per match	1.5	0.9
Goals conceded per match	1.1	1.6
xG per match	1.17	1.03
Opponents’ xG	1.15	1.63
Shots	12.9	11.2
On target	4.2	3.5
Corners	4.3	4.8
Cards	2.5	1.6
Possession, %	43	45

Averages per match: Kasımpaşa — the last 10, Alanyaspor — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kasımpaşa

01.11Beşiktaş2:2
29.10Çorluspor 19473:1
24.10away · Eyüpspor1:0
18.10Samsunspor4:1
09.10away · Galatasaray1:3

Alanyaspor

02.11away · Gençlerbirliği0:5
27.1012 Bingölspor4:1
23.10Kocaelispor1:2
17.10away · Fenerbahçe0:3
10.10Erzurumspor FK0:0

Head to head

19.04.2026Kasımpaşa — Alanyaspor1:0
23.11.2025Alanyaspor — Kasımpaşa1:2
15.03.2025Kasımpaşa — Alanyaspor2:1
20.10.2024Alanyaspor — Kasımpaşa1:2
04.02.2024Kasımpaşa — Alanyaspor2:1

Full record: 20 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Europa League or Conference League	Beşiktaş	10	6	1	3	20–12	+8	19
5	Kasımpaşa	10	4	5	1	15–11	+4	17
6	Fenerbahçe	10	5	1	4	24–10	+14	16
11	Erzurumspor FK	10	4	2	4	9–15	-6	14
12	Alanyaspor	10	3	3	4	9–16	-7	12
13	Rizespor	10	3	2	5	11–15	-4	11

Season 2026/27

Full table

Super Lig on the same day

13:30
Erzurumspor FKGöztepepreliminary
313138
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
16:00
KonyasporBeşiktaşpreliminary
202753
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
19:00
TrabzonsporEyüpsporpreliminary
83134
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →