Polish Ekstraklasa, round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, 14:15 (UTC+3)

Korona Kielce — Radomiak Radom

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Model prediction for 7 November

Korona Kielce54%

Draw27%

Radomiak Radom20%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Korona Kielce are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings Korona Kielce are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Korona Kielce are 157 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Korona Kielce — No. 10, 18 pts; Radomiak Radom — No. 15, 11 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Korona Kielce 3 wins, Radomiak Radom 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Korona Kielce — Radomiak Radom What is xG?		1.8–1.1
Korona Kielce not to lose		80%
Radomiak Radom not to lose		46%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

Model vs market

The model agrees with the market: no outcome differs by more than 4 points.

Korona Kielce to winModel54%odds 1.85Market58%odds 1.72
DrawModel27%odds 3.70Market23%odds 4.42
Radomiak Radom to winModel20%odds 5.00Market19%odds 5.19
Total over 2.5Model56%odds 1.79Market57%odds 1.77
Total under 2.5Model44%odds 2.27Market43%odds 2.31

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce goals
Radomiak Radom goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Korona Kielce	Radomiak Radom
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.6	2.2
xG per match	1.33	1.47
Opponents’ xG	1.59	2.02
Shots	14.2	15.6
On target	4.8	4.4
Corners	5.9	7.3
Cards	1.6	1.3
Possession, %	50	49

Averages per match: Korona Kielce — the last 10, Radomiak Radom — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Korona Kielce

02.11away · Zagłębie Lubin0:1
24.10GKS Katowice1:0
18.10away · Lech Poznań1:6
11.10away · Pogoń Szczecin0:2
19.09Raków Częstochowa3:2

Radomiak Radom

02.11Śląsk Wrocław3:1
24.10away · Pogoń Szczecin3:4
19.10away · Wisła Płock0:1
12.10Motor Lublin2:3
20.09away · Lech Poznań1:5

Head to head

13.02.2026Radomiak Radom — Korona Kielce0:2
08.08.2025Korona Kielce — Radomiak Radom3:0
30.03.2025Korona Kielce — Radomiak Radom1:3
20.09.2024Radomiak Radom — Korona Kielce4:0
19.04.2024Korona Kielce — Radomiak Radom4:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Jagiellonia Białystok	12	6	0	6	17–18	-1	18
10	Korona Kielce	13	5	3	5	14–19	-5	18
11	Motor Lublin	13	4	4	5	19–22	-3	16
14	Widzew Łódź	13	1	8	4	17–19	-2	11
15	Radomiak Radom	13	3	2	8	15–29	-14	11
16, Relegation	Śląsk Wrocław	13	2	3	8	17–25	-8	9

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

16:45
Śląsk WrocławPiast Gliwice
362836
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
19:30
Górnik ZabrzeWieczysta Kraków
622315
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:15
Widzew ŁódźPogoń Szczecin
403029
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →