Polish Ekstraklasa, round 14 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Widzew Łódź — Pogoń Szczecin
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Widzew Łódź are slightly stronger: 40% against 29%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Widzew Łódź higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Widzew Łódź — No. 14, 11 pts; Pogoń Szczecin — No. 4, 24 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
- Widzew Łódź: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Widzew Łódź 0 wins, Pogoń Szczecin 5.
- Days of rest before the match: Widzew Łódź 7, Pogoń Szczecin 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Widzew Łódź — Pogoń Szczecin What is xG? | 1.4–1.2 | |
| Widzew Łódź not to lose | 71% | |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Handicap Widzew Łódź
- Widzew Łódź goals
- Pogoń Szczecin goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Widzew Łódź | Pogoń Szczecin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.99 | 1.37 |
| Shots | 14.0 | 12.6 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Corners | 6.8 | 3.3 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 44 |
Form
- 31.10away · GKS Katowice2:3
- 23.10Górnik Zabrze1:1
- 16.10Wisła Kraków0:0
- 11.10away · Piast Gliwice1:2
- 18.09Wieczysta Kraków2:2
- 02.11away · Raków Częstochowa1:3
- 24.10Radomiak Radom4:3
- 17.10away · GKS Katowice1:0
- 11.10Korona Kielce2:0
- 20.09away · Piast Gliwice2:1
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Pogoń Szczecin — Widzew Łódź1:0
- 22.08.2025Widzew Łódź — Pogoń Szczecin1:2
- 22.02.2025Widzew Łódź — Pogoń Szczecin0:4
- 17.08.2024Pogoń Szczecin — Widzew Łódź2:0
- 16.12.2023Widzew Łódź — Pogoń Szczecin1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Legia Warszawa | 13 | 6 | +12 | 24 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 12 | 7 | +8 | 24 |
| 5 | Zagłębie Lubin | 13 | 6 | +1 | 22 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 13 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 13 | 1 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 13 | 3 | -14 | 11 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 5427201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 3628361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →