Russian Premier League, round 14 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Orenburg
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In short
Krylya Sovetov Samara are clear favourites: 49% against 21% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Krylya Sovetov Samara are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Krylya Sovetov Samara are 66 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Krylya Sovetov Samara — No. 9, 15 pts; FC Orenburg — No. 8, 17 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- FC Orenburg: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Krylya Sovetov Samara 2 wins, FC Orenburg 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Orenburg What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Krylya Sovetov Samara not to lose | 79% | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Krylya Sovetov Samara
- Krylya Sovetov Samara goals
- FC Orenburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Krylya Sovetov Samara | FC Orenburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 1.63 | 1.51 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.28 | 1.43 |
| Shots | 14.9 | 13.7 |
| On target | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 38 |
Form
- 02.11Zenit St. Petersburg0:3
- 29.10Dynamo Makhachkala2:0
- 24.10away · Rubin Kazan2:0
- 17.10Fakel1:2
- 14.10Baltika0:2
- 01.11CSKA Moscow0:0
- 28.10Rodina2:1
- 23.10away · FK Akhmat1:0
- 19.10away · Rodina2:2
- 15.10away · Rubin Kazan4:1
Head to head
- 10.05.2026FC Orenburg — Krylya Sovetov Samara1:0
- 04.03.2026Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Orenburg2:0
- 18.10.2025Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Orenburg1:1
- 27.04.2025Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Orenburg2:0
- 20.10.2024FC Orenburg — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Baltika | 13 | 4 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | FC Orenburg | 13 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 13 | 3 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan | 13 | 3 | -5 | 15 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 7119101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 741961The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 5429161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →