Austrian Bundesliga, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Raiffeisen Arena
LASK — Rapid Wien
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In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, LASK to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.
LASK are clear favourites: 56% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings LASK are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: LASK — Rapid Wien What is xG? | 2.0–1.2 | |
| LASK not to lose | 80% | |
| Rapid Wien not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap LASK
- LASK goals
- Rapid Wien goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Hartberg3:3
- 13.09away · Sturm Graz1:2
- 08.09away · AEK Athens0:1
- 01.09away · Wolfsberger AC3:1
- 29.08Altach3:0
- 18.09WSG Tirol3:0
- 12.09away · Wolfsberger AC3:0
- 02.09away · Salzburg1:5
- 30.08Sturm Graz3:1
- 16.08Grazer AK8:0
Head to head
- 04.05.2026LASK — Rapid Wien3:1
- 22.03.2026Rapid Wien — LASK4:2
- 30.11.2025LASK — Rapid Wien3:0
- 19.10.2025Rapid Wien — LASK0:2
- 01.06.2025Rapid Wien — LASK3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Rapid Wien | 8 | 7 | +16 | 21 |
| 2, Championship round | Salzburg | 8 | 5 | +14 | 18 |
| 3, Championship round | LASK | 8 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
Next matches
- LASKLiverpool14 October · Champions League2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- Rapid WienHartberg16 October · Austrian Bundesliga6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- 5127221The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5127221The most likely outcome came true: 14:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →