French Ligue 2, round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, 16:00 (UTC+3)

Laval — Montpellier

Model prediction for 21 November

Laval28%

Draw28%

Montpellier44%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Montpellier are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

By the strength ratings Montpellier are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Montpellier are 152 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Laval — No. 16, 9 pts; Montpellier — No. 2, 24 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
Montpellier: 4 wins in a row.
Last 2 meetings: Laval 0 wins, Montpellier 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Laval — Montpellier What is xG?		1.2–1.4
Laval not to lose		56%
Montpellier not to lose		72%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		55%
Both teams to score: no		45%
Total over 2.5		49%
Total under 2.5		51%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Laval
Laval goals
Montpellier goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Laval	Montpellier
Goals scored per match	1.2	1.5
Goals conceded per match	1.8	0.5
xG per match	1.53	1.20
Opponents’ xG	1.36	1.39
Shots	13.3	11.2
On target	4.2	4.8
Corners	5.5	5.0
Cards	2.3	2.3
Possession, %	57	58

Averages per match: Laval — the last 10, Montpellier — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Laval

30.10Boulogne1:0
23.10away · Nancy0:1
16.10Clermont Foot3:3
09.10away · Pau2:3
18.09Sochaux1:1

Montpellier

31.10away · Annecy FC3:0
26.10Red Star2:1
19.10away · Rodez3:0
09.10Grenoble2:0
18.09away · Reims1:1

Head to head

13.03.2026Montpellier — Laval2:0
27.09.2025Laval — Montpellier0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Saint-Étienne	11	8	1	2	23–11	+12	25
2, Promotion	Montpellier	11	7	3	1	16–6	+10	24
3, Promotion play-offs	Nancy	11	7	1	3	16–9	+7	22
15	Nantes	11	2	3	6	12–18	-6	9
16, Relegation play-off	Laval	11	2	3	6	14–21	-7	9
17, Relegation	Clermont Foot	11	0	8	3	10–15	-5	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 2 on the same day

16:00
NantesGrenoblepreliminary
612514
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:00
ReimsSaint-Étiennepreliminary
242947
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →