Polish Ekstraklasa, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Lech Poznań — Wisła Kraków
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lech Poznań are clear favourites: 64% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Lech Poznań — No. 3, 22 pts; Wisła Kraków — No. 6, 17 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Lech Poznań 2 wins, Wisła Kraków 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lech Poznań — Wisła Kraków What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 86% | |
| Wisła Kraków not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lech Poznań
- Lech Poznań goals
- Wisła Kraków goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0
- 11.10away · Legia Warszawa0:2
- 18.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 11.09Jagiellonia Białystok2:0
- 05.09away · Korona Kielce1:1
- 29.08Wieczysta Kraków2:0
Head to head
- 13.03.2022Wisła Kraków — Lech Poznań1:1
- 17.09.2021Lech Poznań — Wisła Kraków5:0
- 08.05.2021Wisła Kraków — Lech Poznań1:2
- 19.12.2020Lech Poznań — Wisła Kraków0:1
- 08.03.2020Wisła Kraków — Lech Poznań1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisła Kraków | 10 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Wisła PłockPiast Gliwicepreliminary4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Wieczysta KrakówJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- GKS KatowiceWidzew Łódźpreliminary4130281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →