UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Lens — Como
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Como are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- Como's starting XI is worth €263m, Lens's €70m (Transfermarkt).
Facts
- League table: Lens — No. 19, 3 pts; Como — No. 12, 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lens — Como What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Lens not to lose | 59% | |
| Como not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lens
- Lens goals
- Como goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Sporting CP0:2
- 09.10Lyon2:1
- 18.09away · Monaco1:2
- 13.09away · Le Mans2:2
- 10.09away · Slavia Prague3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Como | 2 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lens | 2 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AEK Athens | 2 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- FenerbahçeLiverpoolpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- AEK AthensReal Madridpreliminary1923592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- Borussia DortmundReal Betispreliminary6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- FC PortoNapolipreliminary5224231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- PSV EindhovenClub Bruggepreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- RB LeipzigManchester Citypreliminary2425512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Slavia PragueArsenalpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- VikingSabah FKpreliminary7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →