UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Lincoln Red Imps FC — Hajduk Split
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Hajduk Split are slightly stronger: 43% against 31%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hajduk Split are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Hajduk Split are 67 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Lincoln Red Imps FC — No. 27, 0 pts; Hajduk Split — No. 12, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC — Hajduk Split What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC not to lose | 57% | |
| Hajduk Split not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lincoln Red Imps FC
- Lincoln Red Imps FC goals
- Hajduk Split goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · Brann1:2
- 18.12away · Legia Warszawa1:4
- 11.12Sigma Olomouc2:1
- 27.11away · Hamrun Spartans1:3
- 06.11Rijeka1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Gent | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- MjällbyBorac Banja Lukapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →