English Premier League, round 9 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Liverpool — Arsenal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Arsenal are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Liverpool — Arsenal What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Liverpool not to lose | 57% | |
| Arsenal not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Liverpool
- Liverpool goals
- Arsenal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Manchester City0:3
- 20.09away · AFC Bournemouth1:0
- 15.09Tottenham Hotspur3:1
- 12.09Fulham0:0
- 09.09Atlético Madrid2:1
- 13.10Lille3:0
- 10.10Leeds United2:1
- 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
- 12.09away · Sunderland2:0
Head to head
- 08.01.2026Arsenal — Liverpool0:0
- 31.08.2025Liverpool — Arsenal1:0
- 11.05.2025Liverpool — Arsenal2:2
- 27.10.2024Arsenal — Liverpool2:2
- 04.02.2024Arsenal — Liverpool3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →