Ukrainian Premier League, round 8 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Arena Liviy Bereh
Liviy Bereh — Zorya
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:3Missed
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (34%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 34% fails in about 66 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Liviy Bereh 32%, Zorya 34%, draw 34%.
The model expects few goals: 1.7 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 25%, both teams to score — 34%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Zorya are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Liviy Bereh — Zorya What is xG? | 0.8–0.9 | |
| Liviy Bereh not to lose | 66% | |
| Zorya not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 34% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 66% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 25% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 75% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi2:0
- 13.09away · Polissya Zhytomyr0:1
- 04.09away · Chornomorets Odesa0:0
- 29.08Karpaty1:1
- 15.08away · Kryvbas1:1
- 19.09Dynamo Kyiv0:2
- 13.09away · Bukovyna Chernivtsi1:1
- 06.09away · Veres Rivne1:1
- 31.08FC Kharkiv0:3
- 17.08away · Polissya Zhytomyr2:1
Head to head
- 25.04.2025Zorya — Liviy Bereh2:1
- 27.10.2024Liviy Bereh — Zorya0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | +9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 8 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Liviy Bereh | 7 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Kryvbas | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
Next matches
- ZoryaChornomorets Odesa17 October · Ukrainian Premier League6025151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- FC KharkivLiviy Bereh19 October · Ukrainian Premier League6525111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:01.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 34% will not happen in roughly 66 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →