UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Lugano — FK Kauno Žalgiris
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lugano are clear favourites: 68% against 13% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lugano are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Lugano are 307 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Lugano — No. 7, 3 pts; FK Kauno Žalgiris — No. 36, 0 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Lugano: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lugano — FK Kauno Žalgiris What is xG? | 2.3–0.9 | |
| Lugano not to lose | 87% | |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lugano
- Lugano goals
- FK Kauno Žalgiris goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10FK Crvena Zvezda3:2
- 10.10Luzern4:0
- 20.09away · Lausanne4:0
- 16.09St. Gallen4:1
- 12.09Young Boys2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | St.Truiden | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Lugano | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 35 | Braga | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | FK Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →