Paraguayan Primera Division · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Luqueño — Nacional (PAR)
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nacional (PAR) are clear favourites: 53% against 20% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nacional (PAR) are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Nacional (PAR) are 197 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Luqueño: 3 defeats in a row; Nacional (PAR): unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Luqueño 1 win, Nacional (PAR) 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Luqueño — Nacional (PAR) What is xG? | 0.9–1.6 | |
| Luqueño not to lose | 47% | |
| Nacional (PAR) not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Luqueño
- Luqueño goals
- Nacional (PAR) goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Cerro Porteño0:3
- 05.10away · Sportivo Trinidense2:3
- 25.09Guaraní0:1
- 21.09Recoleta1:0
- 13.09away · Olimpia0:3
- 13.10Recoleta1:0
- 07.10away · Olimpia1:1
- 26.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1
- 19.092 de Mayo3:0
- 14.09away · Rubio Ñú1:0
Head to head
- 24.08.2026Nacional (PAR) — Luqueño2:0
- 28.03.2026Nacional (PAR) — Luqueño3:2
- 28.01.2026Luqueño — Nacional (PAR)1:2
- 13.10.2025Nacional (PAR) — Luqueño1:1
- 30.07.2025Luqueño — Nacional (PAR)2:1
Paraguayan Primera on the same day
- Cerro PorteñoOlimpiapreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- RecoletaSportivo Amelianopreliminary362935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Guaraní2 de Mayopreliminary5328191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- Sportivo TrinidenseRubio Ñúpreliminary6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Sportivo San LorenzoLibertadpreliminary1323652The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →