Paraguayan Primera Division · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Sportivo San Lorenzo — Libertad
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Libertad are clear favourites: 65% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Libertad are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Libertad are 196 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Sportivo San Lorenzo: winless in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Sportivo San Lorenzo 0 wins, Libertad 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sportivo San Lorenzo — Libertad What is xG? | 0.6–1.8 | |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo not to lose | 35% | |
| Libertad not to lose | 87% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo San Lorenzo goals
- Libertad goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Sportivo Trinidense1:1
- 03.10away · Guaraní1:1
- 28.09Recoleta0:0
- 20.09Olimpia0:3
- 11.09away · Sportivo Ameliano0:1
- 12.10Guaraní2:2
- 05.10away · Recoleta2:1
- 29.09Olimpia0:1
- 19.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1
- 12.09away · 2 de Mayo2:0
Head to head
- 25.08.2026Libertad — Sportivo San Lorenzo1:0
- 02.05.2026Libertad — Sportivo San Lorenzo5:0
- 03.03.2026Sportivo San Lorenzo — Libertad0:7
Paraguayan Primera on the same day
- Cerro PorteñoOlimpiapreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- RecoletaSportivo Amelianopreliminary362935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Guaraní2 de Mayopreliminary5328191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- Sportivo TrinidenseRubio Ñúpreliminary6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- LuqueñoNacional (PAR)preliminary2027532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →