La Liga, round 8 · Friday, 9 October, 22:00 MSK · Estadio La Rosaleda

Málaga — Espanyol

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed

Málaga31%

Draw30%

Espanyol39%

Model estimate at 21:34 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Espanyol to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.

Espanyol are slightly stronger: 39% against 31%, draw 30%.

The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

By the strength ratings Espanyol are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Málaga — Espanyol What is xG?		1.1–1.2
Málaga not to lose		61%
Espanyol not to lose		69%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		41%
Total under 2.5		59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Málaga
Málaga goals
Espanyol goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Málaga

20.09away · Getafe0:1
17.09Villarreal1:3
13.09away · Celta Vigo1:1
06.09Levante0:0
30.08away · Real Madrid0:4

Espanyol

18.09Elche1:3
15.09away · Rayo Vallecano1:2
12.09away · Osasuna2:0
06.09Sevilla1:1
29.08away · Real Sociedad1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13–13	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11–11	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11–16	-5	8
19, Relegation	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6–15	-9	5
20, Relegation	Málaga	8	0	4	4	4–13	-9	4

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

15:00
EspanyolAtlético Madrid17 October · La Liga
252748
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
19:30
MálagaReal Sociedad18 October · La Liga
252946
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →