La Liga, round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Málaga — Racing Santander
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Evenly matched: Málaga 38%, Racing Santander 34%, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Racing Santander are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Málaga higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Málaga — No. 20, 5 pts; Racing Santander — No. 16, 11 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Málaga 0 wins, Racing Santander 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Málaga — Racing Santander What is xG? | 1.6–1.5 | |
| Málaga not to lose | 66% | |
| Racing Santander not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Málaga | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| xG per match | 1.05 | 1.47 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.63 | 2.27 |
| Shots | 12.5 | 14.0 |
| On target | 3.4 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 53 |
Form
- 31.10away · Real Betis1:2
- 27.10away · Sporting de Alcazar3:0
- 23.10away · Deportivo Alavés1:1
- 18.10Real Sociedad2:5
- 09.10Espanyol1:1
- 01.11Real Madrid0:3
- 29.10away · Ribadesella CF2:0
- 24.10Espanyol2:1
- 18.10away · Osasuna0:2
- 11.10Valencia2:2
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Málaga — Racing Santander1:1
- 05.10.2025Racing Santander — Málaga3:0
- 01.02.2025Racing Santander — Málaga2:1
- 23.11.2024Málaga — Racing Santander0:0
- 05.03.2023Málaga — Racing Santander0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 3 | -14 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 11 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Málaga | 11 | 0 | -13 | 5 |
La Liga on the same day
- 4230291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 2730432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- 1021692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →