La Liga, round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Valencia — Real Madrid
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites: 69% against 10% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Madrid are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Real Madrid are 195 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Valencia — No. 19, 9 pts; Real Madrid — No. 3, 27 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- Real Madrid: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Valencia 1 win, Real Madrid 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Valencia — Real Madrid What is xG? | 0.9–2.1 | |
| Valencia not to lose | 31% | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 90% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Valencia | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.08 | 2.26 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.55 | 1.27 |
| Shots | 10.6 | 16.0 |
| On target | 3.0 | 6.9 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 5.9 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 44 | 49 |
Form
- 01.11away · Elche1:0
- 24.10Villarreal1:2
- 17.10Athletic Club0:0
- 11.10away · Racing Santander2:2
- 20.09Real Sociedad2:3
- 01.11away · Racing Santander3:0
- 25.10away · Barcelona2:1
- 21.10RB Leipzig4:1
- 18.10Sevilla4:1
- 14.10away · Roma4:3
Head to head
- 08.02.2026Valencia — Real Madrid0:2
- 01.11.2025Real Madrid — Valencia4:0
- 05.04.2025Real Madrid — Valencia1:2
- 03.01.2025Valencia — Real Madrid1:2
- 02.03.2024Valencia — Real Madrid2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9 | +14 | 28 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
| 4, Champions League | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | +3 | 23 |
| 18, Relegation | Levante | 11 | 2 | -5 | 10 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 11 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Málaga | 11 | 0 | -13 | 5 |
La Liga on the same day
- 3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- 4230291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 2730432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →