La Liga, round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Osasuna — Athletic Club
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Athletic Club are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Athletic Club higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Osasuna — No. 15, 11 pts; Athletic Club — No. 7, 15 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Athletic Club: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Osasuna 1 win, Athletic Club 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Osasuna — Athletic Club What is xG? | 1.1–1.4 | |
| Osasuna not to lose | 57% | |
| Athletic Club not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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- Handicap Osasuna
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- Athletic Club goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.64 | 1.78 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.53 | 1.26 |
| Shots | 11.9 | 15.4 |
| On target | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 3.3 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 54 |
Form
- 02.11away · Deportivo A Coruña1:2
- 29.10away · Atletico Calatayud6:0
- 26.10away · Sevilla0:2
- 18.10Racing Santander2:0
- 11.10away · Real Betis2:5
- 01.11Real Sociedad2:1
- 29.10away · AE Prat6:1
- 25.10Getafe4:0
- 21.10away · Levante1:3
- 17.10away · Valencia0:0
Head to head
- 21.04.2026Athletic Club — Osasuna1:0
- 03.01.2026Osasuna — Athletic Club1:1
- 30.03.2025Athletic Club — Osasuna0:0
- 16.01.2025Athletic Club — Osasuna2:3
- 21.12.2024Osasuna — Athletic Club1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 11 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 3 | -14 | 11 |
La Liga on the same day
- 3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- 4230291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 1021692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →