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South African Premiership · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Royal Bafokeng Stadium

Mamelodi Sundowns FC — Durban City

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Model prediction and result

4:1Came true
Mamelodi Sundowns FC70%
Draw21%
Durban City9%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Mamelodi Sundowns FC to win (70%), came true.

Mamelodi Sundowns FC are clear favourites: 70% against 9% for the opponent, draw 21%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 35%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Mamelodi Sundowns FC are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • Mamelodi Sundowns FC are 366 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Mamelodi Sundowns FC: unbeaten in 5; Durban City: winless in 4.
  • Last 2 meetings: Mamelodi Sundowns FC 2 wins, Durban City 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mamelodi Sundowns FC — Durban City What is xG?1.7–0.5
Mamelodi Sundowns FC not to lose91%
Durban City not to lose30%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes35%
Both teams to score: no65%
Total over 2.538%
Total under 2.562%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Mamelodi Sundowns FC
  • Mamelodi Sundowns FC goals
  • Durban City goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 34′Thabang Matuludi · Mamelodi Sundowns FC1:0
  2. 66′Thabang Matuludi · Mamelodi Sundowns FC2:0
  3. 79′Iqraam Rayners · Mamelodi Sundowns FC3:0
  4. 85′Thabang Matuludi · Mamelodi Sundowns FC
  5. 86′Jean Lwamba · Durban City3:1
  6. 94′Antonio Van Wyk · Mamelodi Sundowns FC4:1
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Bokang Mokwena ↔ Ethan Brooks · Durban City
  2. 46′Samkelo Maseko ↔ Luphumlo Sifumba · Durban City
  3. 46′Tylo Sanger ↔ Kyle Jurgens · Durban City
  4. 62′Siyanda Ndlovu ↔ Cassius Mailula · Mamelodi Sundowns FC
  5. 62′Iqraam Rayners ↔ Brayan Léon · Mamelodi Sundowns FC
  6. 62′Antonio Van Wyk ↔ Tashreeq Matthews · Mamelodi Sundowns FC
  7. 70′Seth Green ↔ Letsie Koapeng · Durban City
  8. 78′Tsiki Ntsabeleng ↔ Bathusi Aubaas · Mamelodi Sundowns FC
  9. 82′Arthur Sales ↔ Nuno Santos · Mamelodi Sundowns FC

Match statistics

Mamelodi Sundowns FCDurban City
  • 1.71Expected goals (xG)0.92
  • 68Possession, %32
  • 22Shots5
  • 9On target1
  • 2Big chances1
  • 11Corners2
  • 14Fouls6
  • 1Offsides4
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Mamelodi Sundowns FC

  1. GKRicardo Goss6.5
  2. DFAubrey Maphosa Modiba8.8
  3. DFKhulumani Ndamane7.2
  4. DFThabang Matuludi9.2
  5. DFMalibongwe Khoza7.8
  6. MFNuno Santos82′7.1
  7. MFMarcelo Allende (C)8.5
  8. MFBathusi Aubaas78′7.0
  9. FWTashreeq Matthews62′6.9
  10. FWBrayan Léon62′6.9
  11. FWCassius Mailula62′7.0
Came on (5)
  1. FWIqraam Rayners28′7.5
  2. FWArthur Sales8′
  3. MFSiyanda Ndlovu28′7.1
  4. FWAntonio Van Wyk28′7.5
  5. MFTsiki Ntsabeleng12′6.3

Durban City

  1. GKFredrick Asare5.5
  2. DFBandile Shandu5.1
  3. DFSiphamandla Ncanana (C)5.4
  4. DFJohn Mokone5.2
  5. DFMfanafuthi Mkhize5.2
  6. MFKyle Jurgens45′6.0
  7. MFEthan Brooks45′6.1
  8. MFBrooklyn Poggenpoel5.5
  9. FWLetsie Koapeng70′6.1
  10. FWLuphumlo Sifumba45′6.0
  11. FWJean Lwamba6.5
Came on (4)
  1. DFTylo Sanger45′6.4
  2. MFSamkelo Maseko45′6.2
  3. MFSeth Green20′5.8
  4. MFBokang Mokwena45′5.6

Form

Mamelodi Sundowns FC

  • 13.10away · Richards Bay4:1
  • 12.09away · Chippa United1:1
  • 09.09Siwelele3:0
  • 06.09away · Lamontville Golden Arrows2:1
  • 02.09Milford FC2:0

Durban City

  • 13.10AmaZulu FC1:2
  • 20.09away · Milford FC1:1
  • 17.09away · Orlando Pirates0:2
  • 01.09Stellenbosch FC0:0
  • 25.08away · Kruger United2:0

Head to head

  • 07.04.2026Durban City — Mamelodi Sundowns FC0:1
  • 20.09.2025Mamelodi Sundowns FC — Durban City3:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, CAF Champions LeagueMamelodi Sundowns FC1082027–9+1826
2, CAF Champions LeagueOrlando Pirates981021–2+1925
12TS Galaxy91447–12-57
13Durban City91446–11-57
14Siwelele91359–16-76

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next match

  • Durban CityPolokwane City24 November · SA Premiership · preliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.7

SA Premiership on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →