UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Manchester United — Roma
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Manchester United are clear favourites: 49% against 26% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester United are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Manchester United — No. 7, 3 pts; Roma — No. 22, 1 pt. A gap of 2 pts.
- Manchester United: winless in 5; Roma: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester United — Roma What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 74% | |
| Roma not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester United
- Manchester United goals
- Roma goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 13.10away · Atlético Madrid0:2
- 10.10Tottenham Hotspur1:1
- 20.09away · Fulham1:1
- 16.09Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- 13.09Manchester City0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Como | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sabah FK | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Champions League on the same day
- Shakhtar DonetskSporting CPpreliminary3526382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- GalatasarayVfB Stuttgartpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- BarcelonaAston Villapreliminary7018111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- Atlético MadridBayern Münchenpreliminary2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- FeyenoordInterpreliminary2926452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Bodø/GlimtLillepreliminary4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- VillarrealParis Saint-Germainpreliminary2224542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- LASKSlovan Bratislavapreliminary6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →