Serie A, round 9 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Milan — Bologna
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Milan are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Milan are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Milan — Bologna What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Milan not to lose | 79% | |
| Bologna not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
181 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Milan
- Milan goals
- Bologna goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10away · Lecce2:1
- 19.09Torino1:1
- 13.09away · Napoli0:1
- 06.09Sassuolo2:2
- 31.08away · Atalanta0:1
Head to head
- 03.02.2026Bologna — Milan0:3
- 14.09.2025Milan — Bologna1:0
- 14.05.2025Milan — Bologna0:1
- 09.05.2025Milan — Bologna3:1
- 27.02.2025Bologna — Milan2:1
Table
Serie A on the same day
- ParmaUdinesepreliminary313237XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- VeneziaInterpreliminary612822The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5
- GenoaJuventuspreliminary1627572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- MonzaNapolipreliminary1423632The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →