UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Monaco — Nordsjælland
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Monaco are clear favourites: 67% against 14% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- Monaco's starting XI is worth €119m, Nordsjælland's €30m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Monaco are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Monaco — No. 10, 3 pts; Nordsjælland — No. 17, 1 pt. A gap of 2 pts.
- Monaco: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Monaco — Nordsjælland What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Monaco not to lose | 86% | |
| Nordsjælland not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Monaco
- Monaco goals
- Nordsjælland goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · CSKA Sofia2:1
- 10.10Toulouse2:2
- 18.09Lens2:1
- 12.09away · Strasbourg1:1
- 04.09away · Paris Saint-Germain2:1
- 15.10away · Heart of Midlothian1:1
- 09.10OB0:0
- 20.09away · Viborg1:4
- 13.09AGF2:0
- 07.09away · FC Midtjylland2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Brann | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Nordsjælland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Riga FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →