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French Ligue 2, round 10 · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3) · Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98

Montpellier — Red Star

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Montpellier41%
Draw31%
Red Star29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Montpellier to win (41%), came true.

Montpellier are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 31%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Montpellier are 120 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Montpellier: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 2 meetings: Montpellier 0 wins, Red Star 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Montpellier — Red Star What is xG?1.4–1.2
Montpellier not to lose71%
Red Star not to lose59%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.551%
Total under 2.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Montpellier
  • Montpellier goals
  • Red Star goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 17′Noah Vidal-Cartoux · Montpellier
  2. 30′Mamadou Camara · Montpellier
  3. 42′Dylan Durivaux · Red Star
  4. 42′Yanis Zouaoui · Montpellier
  5. 47′Lacine Megnan-Pave · Montpellier1:0
  6. 51′Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Red Star1:1
  7. 66′Matthieu Huard · Red Star
  8. 70′Dylan Durivaux · Red Star
  9. 88′Mamadou Camara · Montpellier2:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 52′Kémo Cissé ↔ Jovany Ikanga A Ngele · Red Star
  2. 52′Elyaz Zidane ↔ Josué Escartin · Red Star
  3. 53′Daryll Benlahlou ↔ Noah Vidal-Cartoux · Montpellier
  4. 64′Hichem Abderrebi ↔ Lacine Megnan-Pave · Montpellier
  5. 64′Daylam Meddah ↔ Théo Chennahi · Montpellier
  6. 73′Leonardo Buta ↔ Matthieu Huard · Red Star
  7. 73′Idrissa Sabaly ↔ Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Red Star
  8. 81′Côme Bianay ↔ Théo Magnin · Red Star
  9. 85′Yassine Benhattab ↔ Nicolas Pays · Montpellier
  10. 85′Nordan Mukiele ↔ Florian Tardieu · Montpellier

Match statistics

MontpellierRed Star
  • 0.58Expected goals (xG)1.07
  • 53Possession, %47
  • 6Shots14
  • 3On target5
  • 1Big chances0
  • 3Corners2
  • 19Fouls21
  • 1Offsides0
  • 3Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Montpellier

  1. GKSimon Ngapandouetnbu6.8
  2. DFYanis Zouaoui7.6
  3. DFYaël Mouanga7.2
  4. DFJulien Laporte7.4
  5. DFNaoufel El Hannach7.1
  6. MFFlorian Tardieu85′7.5
  7. MFThéo Chennahi64′7.1
  8. MFNoah Vidal-Cartoux53′6.3
  9. FWNicolas Pays85′7.6
  10. FWMamadou Camara8.0
  11. FWLacine Megnan-Pave64′7.6
Came on (5)
  1. FWNordan Mukiele5′
  2. FWYassine Benhattab5′
  3. DFDaylam Meddah26′7.2
  4. FWDaryll Benlahlou37′6.5
  5. MFHichem Abderrebi26′6.0

Red Star

  1. GKGaëtan Poussin6.0
  2. DFMatthieu Huard73′7.6
  3. DFThéo Magnin81′7.7
  4. DFJosué Escartin52′6.7
  5. DFDylan Durivaux70′5.5
  6. DFBradley Danger6.6
  7. MFSaîf-Eddine Khaoui73′7.1
  8. MFIslamdine Halifa6.5
  9. FWGodson Kyeremeh6.6
  10. FWJovany Ikanga A Ngele52′6.0
  11. FWDamien Durand7.2
Came on (5)
  1. DFLeonardo Buta17′6.5
  2. MFIdrissa Sabaly17′6.7
  3. DFCôme Bianay9′
  4. FWKémo Cissé38′6.6
  5. DFElyaz Zidane38′6.8

Form

Montpellier

  • 19.10away · Rodez3:0
  • 09.10Grenoble2:0
  • 18.09away · Reims1:1
  • 11.09Pau1:0
  • 05.09away · Saint-Étienne1:3

Red Star

  • 17.10Saint-Étienne0:1
  • 10.10away · Clermont Foot3:2
  • 19.09away · Guingamp3:1
  • 14.09Metz1:0
  • 04.09away · Laval2:1

Head to head

  • 09.05.2026Red Star — Montpellier1:1
  • 09.08.2025Montpellier — Red Star1:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, PromotionSaint-Étienne1181223–11+1225
2, PromotionMontpellier1173116–6+1024
3, Promotion play-offsNancy1171316–9+722
5, Promotion play-offsPau1162316–11+520
6Red Star1152414–16-217
7Annecy FC1151514–15-116

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Annecy FCMontpellier31 October · Ligue 2
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
  • Red StarNancy2 November · Ligue 2
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:1.2.5

Ligue 2 on the same day

  • BoulogneReims
    XThe most likely outcome came true: XFinal score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →