Belarusian Premier League · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Naftan — ML Vitebsk
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In short
ML Vitebsk are clear favourites: 81% against 5% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings ML Vitebsk are about 2.0 goals per match stronger.
- ML Vitebsk are 350 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Naftan — No. 16, 17 pts; ML Vitebsk — No. 1, 59 pts. A gap of 42 pts.
- Naftan: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 3 meetings: Naftan 0 wins, ML Vitebsk 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Naftan — ML Vitebsk What is xG? | 0.6–2.6 | |
| Naftan not to lose | 19% | |
| ML Vitebsk not to lose | 95% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Naftan
- Naftan goals
- ML Vitebsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Naftan | ML Vitebsk |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| On target | 4.8 | 6.7 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 7.9 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Possession, % | 44 | 61 |
Form
- 31.10away · Baranovici0:3
- 24.10Isloch0:6
- 19.10away · Zhodino0:1
- 10.10Belshina4:1
- 19.09away · Slavia Mozyr1:0
Head to head
- 27.06.2026ML Vitebsk — Naftan2:1
- 22.08.2025ML Vitebsk — Naftan2:0
- 12.04.2025Naftan — ML Vitebsk0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | ML Vitebsk | 27 | 17 | +37 | 59 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Isloch | 27 | 17 | +30 | 58 |
| 15, Relegation | BATE | 27 | 4 | -15 | 21 |
| 16, Relegation | Naftan | 27 | 4 | -41 | 17 |
Belarusian Premier League on the same day
- 1122672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 3527382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
- 2025542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →